The Annapolis Conference

Annapolis has come and gone. I wanted to jot down a few of my thoughts and impressions regarding the conference. To begin, the fact that the Arab League was nearly entirely represented on the ministerial level already makes this a success for Israel, as it demonstrates that the Arab leaders have not bought into the fanatical rejectionism of Hamas, Hezbollah or their pimp Iran.

Next comes the hard part. Israel and the PA have agreed on a joint document and will immediately begin bilateral negotiations intended to create a Palestinian state and end the Israel - Palestinian conflict. This would in theory lead to negotiated treaties and a normalization of relations with all countries represented by the Arab League, as propsed in the Arab Peace Initiative.

It all sounds nice and pretty, but its totally contingent on the Israeli government and the PA reaching an agreeable compromise, something that has failed on several occasions in the past. There are a number of factors working against this potential outcome. The first is that both Ehud Olmert and Abu Mazen are weak, unpopular leaders who may lack the political clout to make such an agreement. Olmert is under indictment for fraud and lost the support of most of his constituency by failing to militarily defeat Hezbollah last summer during the Second Lebanon War. Abu Mazen's Fatah party was routed and thrown out of Gaza by Hamas, and there are questions about his legitimacy in regard to his decision to dissolve the Hamas parlimant after the civil war in Gaza.

Additionally, Olmert will face challenges to his government by members of his coalition in the knesset. (For those who don't understand the inner workings of a parliamentary democracy can read about them here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_system) Essentially, Olmert's party "Kadima" cannot rule on their own because they lack a majority of the seats in Knesset, but are considered the dominant party because they have a plurality. In order to rule, they must form pacts with other less represented parties so that together they will form a majority. This is called a coalition. Olmert has several right wing parties in his coalition who are opposed to any land compromise, and may attempt to bring down the government by leaving the coalition. This would force new elections, and generally throw Israel's entire political reality into turmoil, thus postponing any peace agreement.

Finally both societies must deal with the extremists in their midsts, those who would choose violence and bloodshed over compromise. I can only hope that these people are neutralized to the greatest extent possible. We would do well not to forget that leaders on both sides have been murdered for pursuing a peace settlement. Anwar Sadat of Egypt was assassinated in 1979 by Islamic extremists, while Yitzhak Rabin was murdered in 1995 by a fascist Jewish settler.

With all that said, I am hopefull that an accord can be struck. Making peace with the Arabs is key to isolating Iran and limiting Iran's influence in the Levant. It could have a domino effect: Israel makes peace with the Palestinians, allowing her to then make peace with Syria. This would deprive Iran of it's steadiest Arab ally, while simultaneously choking off Iranian money and weapons from Hamas and Hezbollah.